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R Gopalakrishnan, executive director of Tata Sons and
chairman of Rallis India, talks about the impending global food
crisis and solutions for India in a speech addressing the Bombay
Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Agricorp 2009 conference
held in Mumbai in September 2009
The title of my speech is inspired by a poignant chapter in
a centuries-old Tamil classic called Thirukkural. A couplet
in the chapter emphasises that, though laborious, farming is an
“excellent activity”, the basis for all trading in the
world. Another couplet visualises the earth as a maiden who will
cry when she finds lazy and confused people staying idle while pleading
poverty. Humankind may have reached that point once again in its
history.
I will be making three principal points today:
- The world is heading for a food shortage.
- India is gradually getting enmeshed in a pulses crisis.
- Our capability to respond is positive.
It is important to note that the pulses, or daal, crisis is specific
to India. A shortage of pulses can have devastating long-term effects
on our national nutritional standards. The prices of pulses have reached
astronomical levels this year and the government has, expectedly,
expressed deep concern. The rise in prices is not an aberration; rather,
it indicates a possible trend. Like with onions, which have on occasion
become a critical factor in elections past, pulses could turn into
a problem in the future.
The atmosphere and tools for solving this problem are extraordinarily
favorable. The ‘belly of India’, comprising Maharashtra,
Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh, accounts
for three-fourths of India’s pulses production. There are solutions
to bring this belly back to good health and the Bombay Chamber should
advocate a plan and work with the government.
The world is heading for a food shortage
At the end of the Second World War, mother earth supported a global
population of about 2.5 billion people; today that figure has swelled
to over 6 billion and is expected to peak at 9 billion by 2050. It
took thousands of years for the world’s population to reach 3
billion, but merely six decades to double in number. As a result,
the per capita availability of arable land, which was 1 acre just
a few decades back, will decrease to one third of an acre by 2050.
When the world was faced with a looming food crisis after the Second
World War, science and public policy stepped in to modernise the ancient
practice of agriculture. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture
Organization was set up in 1945. The rapid mechanisation of agriculture,
the use of crop protection and crop nutrition, and the development
of better seeds dramatically enhanced the productivity of farming.
The farming fillip was so successful that, since the 1970s, a new
generation has grown up — one to whom food availability and prices
are of little concern. This shows in the extravagance of food consumption
and wastage. In the United States about 50 per cent of all food produced
is thrown away. Britain squanders 20 million tonnes of food each year
and the Japanese $100 billion worth of it in the same period. If the
affluent nations stop wasting so much food, the world can perhaps
manage with current levels of production and, possibly, feed all of
its poor everywhere.
The tragedy of food wastage is not restricted to the developed world.
A vast amount of food is wasted in India, a big producer of fruits
and vegetables. Reducing waste ought to be, in the circumstances,
an obvious priority. However, like with free trade and global warming,
food is often a victim of negotiations and geopolitics. That may be
one reason why scientists are exploring the possibility of growing
food in urban skyscrapers through new technologies.
Increasing world population, growth in developing nations and rapid
urbanisation are spurring higher demand for food. Juxtapose this reality
with the impact of climate change on agriculture, land degradation
leading to uncertainty about crop yields, and the dwindling availability
of arable land. According to the United Nations, the land available
for agriculture across the world could decline in productivity by
up to 25 per cent during this century. And now, for the first time
in 35 years, the global demand for food will outstrip supply. Our
food stocks are falling.
Between 2004 and 2009, the price of basic consumption items such as
cereals, pulses, sugar, tea, milk, vegetables and edible oils have
doubled, even trebled. Worse, the average price of food crops is certain
to climb even further. The cost of wheat, maize and skimmed milk powder
could be higher by 40-60 per cent in the 2008-2017 period when compared
with 1998-2007, by 30 per cent for raw and white sugar, by more than
60 per cent for butter and oilseeds, and in excess of 80 per cent
for vegetable oils. According to a report drafted for ministers of
the G8 nations, the world faces “a permanent food crisis and
global instability unless countries act now to feed a surging population
by doubling agricultural output”.
The demand-supply gap for food in India shows that although in the
short to medium term, supply will meet demand requirements, in the
long run (2021 onwards) demand will outstrip supply for cereals, pulses,
edible oil and sugar. A study conducted by the Tata Department of
Economics and Statistics affirms that the trend on food commodity
prices will be high and volatile for the next 10-15 years.
India is getting enmeshed in a pulses crisis
Agriculture and food are subjects of vital significance. In the limited
time available, I wish to focus on just one food group, pulses, which
is crucial to India but of miniscule interest to the rest of the world.
India is in a precarious situation with pulses. The problem has been
worsening gradually and is becoming a silent emergency, like the proverbial
frog in the heating water, and all of those who ought to be concerned
may not be even fully aware of it. Indians will suffer the most if
India does not find a way out of the pulses crisis, because other
societies do not depend as much as us on pod-bearing plants for proteins.
India is the largest producer of pulses in the world, yet it is also
the largest importer of pulses. Going from being the largest producer
or exporter to becoming the largest importer is not a new experience
for this country. In the 1920s, India was among the largest producers
and exporters of oil seeds in the world; today we are the largest
importer. In the 1950s, India was by far the largest exporter of tea;
today Sri Lanka and Kenya have increased their exportable surplus
and India’s market share in the global tea trade is significantly
lower.
What is the issue on pulses? India is more vegetarian than any other
society in the world. Consequently, our dietary dependence on pulses
as the main source of protein is enormous. Pulses are the most economic
source of protein. The World Health Organization recommends 80 grams
of pluses per person per day and India will consume about 38 million
tonnes a year by 2018. Compare this projected demand with the current
Indian production of 15 million tonnes a year and a worldwide production
of 55 million tonnes. The contours of the crisis become clear. India
would have to double yields or acreage or look at a mix of both.
Why did pulses not follow the pattern of wheat, rice and the green
revolution? Pulses in India are traditionally considered to be a residual
crop, only suited for growth under rain-fed conditions when one can’t
grow wheat or rice. The green revolution saw the country taking great
strides in increasing the yields of rice and wheat. Along with this,
the government’s procurement policy and strategy helped in the
promotion of these cereals. There have been no great technology breakthroughs
with respect to pulses. Equally, no aggressive plan, commensurate
with the crisis, is in place for pulses.
Canada cultivates pulses for supply to India and singly accounts for
50 per cent of our pulses imports. Canadian farmers are encouraged
and given subsidies to cultivate pulses. An additional benefit, from
the Canadian perspective, is that pulses, being nitrogen-fixing crops,
help in furthering the ‘green’ agenda.At 638 kilos a hectare,
India’s pulses yield is way below that of best-in-class countries,
which produce about 1,800 kilos a hectare. It’s obvious that
inadequate pest and nutrient management have led to lower yields,
and then there are issues such as farmer perceptions of risk and cost,
the absence of government procurement, lack of high-yielding varieties
of seeds, and poor agricultural infrastructure.
Our capability to respond is positive
While the above points affirm that there is an impending crisis, the
climate for agriculture has never been better. There has been a turn
in fortunes for agriculture — quietly and unknowingly —
and some credit is due to the government for a supportive policy:
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There has been high and consistent increase in agricultural
production in India over the last few years. |
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The gross fixed capital formation in agriculture has increased. |
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The credit supply position for the farmer has improved. |
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There has been considerable growth in the minimum support
price. |
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There has been an improvement in the availability of quality
inputs. |
Can India achieve a production revolution in pulses? An analysis
by the Tata Strategic Management Group has shown that by adopting
best practices and increasing yield to the highest levels, India
can increase production by 13 million tonnes a year. Additional
areas that can be brought under pulses cultivation include existing
rice fallows and the hilly reaches of north and northeast India,
while intercropping will also increase the area under production.
These measures could result in additional production of more than
9 million tonnes a year. India certainly has the potential to produce
37 million tonnes of pulses a year.
The MoPu plan
Tata has pooled the resources of its Department of Economics and
Statistics, the Tata Strategic Management Group and its operating
companies Rallis, Tata Chemicals and Tata Consultancy Services to
study India’s pulses problem. With the guidance of noted economist
YK Alagh, chairman of the Institute of Rural Management Anand, former
union minister and member of the Planning Commission, a broad plan
called Tata MoPu — which stands for ‘more pulses’
— has been developed. Tata is proposing to create a knowledge
exchange website in pulses, www.growmorepulses.com,
which will be a community to inform the many, connect the engaged
and excite the passionate.
The Bombay Chamber of Commerce and Industry is well placed to highlight
the pulses crisis to the government. With companies and enterprises
involved in seeds and fertilisers, crop protection, farm mechanisation
and micro-irrigation under its umbrella, the Chamber can work with
the government and promote a more focused, mission-mode, national
program for pulses with a solid public-private partnership.
We need to understand how countries such as Canada achieve three
times our yields per acre. We need to adapt their agronomy practices
to suit our conditions: soil testing, good seed varieties, integrated
pest and nutrition management, irrigation, small-farm mechanisation,
and deployment of information and communication technologies. We
need some government support for prices, procurement and marketing
just as was, and is still being, done for cereals.
I would like to encourage participants to apply their mind and come
up with innovative solutions that can help India overcome the twin
challenges of increasing food production and, specifically, the
cultivation of pulses.
Conclusion
While rummaging in my library, I reconnected with a book published
by Oxford and IBH Publishing entitled “Pulse Production and
Opportunities”. It contained the proceedings of a symposium
organised by Hindustan Lever Research Foundation in 1982.
Dr Ashok Ganguly, the company chairman and a former Bombay Chamber
president, had said in his welcome address, “….pulse is
such an important integral part of the diet…that unless major
steps are taken, we will contribute to calorie malnutrition as well
as amino acid deficiencies….”
I am sobered that I am repeating the same message in 2009.
I request the Bombay Chamber to undertake a positive program of
advocacy on what is undoubtedly a vital agenda for food and nutrition.
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