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by R Gopalakrishnan
The Hindu Business Line, 30 Sept, 2009
The issue is not of a one-off indifferent monsoon or food inflation
in an aberrant year, but of an emerging food shortage in the world
The article “UPA’s Marie Antoinette syndrome (Business
Line, September 26) makes a compelling point about food inflation
and the apparent lack of concern among government circles. The author’s
observations, “…not a single politician has mentioned
the high food prices…it is not an election issue…the government,
in Marie Antoinette-like vagueness, seems busy with global issues…”,
remind me of Keynes’ statement that governments will do the
rational only after trying all other alternatives.
The issue is not one of a one-off indifferent monsoon or food inflation
in an aberrant year, but of an emerging food shortage in the world.
I had pointed this out through an article in Business Line on May
13. I wish to emphasise two principal points: First, that the world
is faced with tight food supplies; second and additionally, India
is enmeshed in a pulses crisis.
At the end of the Second World War, the Earth supported a global
population of about 2.5 billion people; today that figure has swelled
to over six billion and is expected to peak at nine billion by 2050.
It took thousands of years for the world’s population to reach
2.5 billion, but merely another century to more than treble. The
per capita availability of arable land, which was one acre just
a few decades back, will decrease to one-third of an acre by 2050.
When the world was faced with a looming food crisis after the Second
World War, science and public policy stepped in to modernise the
ancient practice of agriculture. Remember Dr Norman Borlaug.
Food wastage
The farming fillip was so successful that, since the 1970s, a new
generation has grown up — one to whom food availability and prices
are of little concern. This shows the extravagance of food consumption
and wastage. In the US, about 50 per cent of all food produced is
thrown away. Britain squanders 20 million tonnes of food each year
and the Japanese $100 billion worth of it in the same period. If the
affluent nations stop wasting so much food, the world can perhaps
manage with current levels of production and, possibly, feed all of
its poor everywhere.
The tragedy of food wastage is not restricted to the developed
world. A vast amount of food is wasted in India, a big producer
of fruits and vegetables. Reducing waste ought to be, in the circumstances,
an obvious priority.
However, like with free trade and global warming, food is often
a victim of negotiations and geopolitics. That may be one reason
why scientists are exploring the possibility of growing food in
urban skyscrapers through new technologies.
Increasing world population, growth in developing nations and rapid
urbanisation are spurring higher demand for food. Land degradation
is leading to uncertainty about crop yields, and the dwindling availability
of arable land. Now, for the first time in 35 years, the global
demand for food will outstrip supply. Our food stocks are falling.
Demand-supply gap
According to a report drafted for ministers of the G8 nations,
the world will face “a permanent food crisis and global instability
unless countries act now to feed a surging population by doubling
agricultural output”.
The demand-supply gap for food in India shows that although in
the short-to-medium term, supply will about meet demand requirements,
but within a decade, demand will outstrip supply for cereals, pulses,
edible oil and sugar.
Of these commodities, the pulses, or daal, crisis is specific to
India. A shortage of pulses can have devastating long-term effects
on our national nutritional standards. The prices of pulses have
reached astronomical levels this year and the government has, expectedly,
expressed deep concern. The rise in prices is not an aberration;
rather, it indicates a trend. Like with onions, which have on occasion
become a critical factor in elections past, pulses could turn into
a problem in the future.
The daal problem has been worsening gradually and is becoming a
silent emergency, like the proverbial frog in the heating water,
and all of those who ought to be concerned may not be even fully
aware of it. Indians will suffer the most if India does not find
a way out of the pulses crisis, because other societies do not depend
as much as us on pod-bearing plants for proteins.
Why did pulses not follow the pattern of wheat, rice and the Green
Revolution? Pulses in India are traditionally considered to be a
residual crop, only suited for growth under rain-fed conditions
when one can’t grow wheat or rice. The Green Revolution saw
the country taking great strides in increasing the yields of rice
and wheat. Along with this, the government’s procurement policy
and strategy helped in the promotion of these cereals.
There have been no great technology breakthroughs with respect
to pulses. Equally, no aggressive plan, commensurate with the crisis,
is in place for pulses.
At 638 kg a hectare, India’s pulses yield is way below that
of best-in-class countries, which produce about 1,800 kg a hectare.
It is obvious that inadequate pest and nutrient management have
led to lower yields, and then there are issues such as farmer perceptions
of risk and cost, the absence of government procurement, lack of
high-yielding varieties of seeds, and poor agricultural infrastructure.
The MoPu plan
Tata has pooled the resources of its Department of Economics and
Statistics, the Tata Strategic Management Group and its operating
companies Rallis, Tata Chemicals and Tata Consultancy Services to
study India’s pulses problem. With the guidance of noted economist,
Mr YK Alagh, chairman of the Institute of Rural Management Anand,
former Union Minister and Member of the Planning Commission, a broad
plan called Tata MoPu — which stands for ‘more pulses’
— has been developed.
Tata is proposing to create a knowledge exchange web site in pulses,
www.growmorepulses.com, which will be a community to inform the
many, connect the engaged and excite the passionate. While rummaging
in my library, I reconnected with a book published by Oxford and
IBH Publishing – Pulse Production and Opportunities. It contained
the proceedings of a symposium organised by Hindustan Lever Research
Foundation in 1982.
Dr Ashok Ganguly, the company chairman and a former Bombay Chamber
president, had said in his welcome address, “…pulse is
such an important integral part of the diet…that unless major
steps are taken, we will contribute to calorie malnutrition as well
as amino acid deficiencies…”
I am sobered that I am merely repeating what had been pointed out
27 years ago!
(The author is chairman of Rallis India and vice-chairman of
Tata Chemicals. This article is adapted from his speech to the Bombay
Chamber of Commerce on Sept 14 2009.)
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